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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 40

Chicago Bears 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP