4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to CHI 34, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP