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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 32

Chicago Bears 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields left guard to CIN 32 for no gain (93-W.Ray). Official measurement

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.88 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model