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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 34 for 4 yards (54-A.Klein). PENALTY on MIA-29-Br.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model