Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

(5:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model