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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 35

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 26-S.Ahmed.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP