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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) 17-J.Allen left guard to MIA 17 for 2 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model