Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

(6:31) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model