Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

(9:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model