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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:11) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model