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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP