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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 82

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at MIA 46 for 20 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model