4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to ATL 45 for no gain (50-V.Vea).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model