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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to ATL 34 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 96-T.Davison).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model