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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 8-K.Pitts [45-D.White].

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model