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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 90

Atlanta Falcons 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-C.Nizialek punts 33 yards to ATL 43, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP