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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model