4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 1-E.Sanders to 50 for 14 yards (42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model