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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model