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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 41
Buffalo Bills 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6
What Actually Happened
(13:46) 22-M.Breida left tackle to PIT 48 for -7 yards (20-C.Sutton).
The Three Options
GO
+1.65 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.25 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
KICK
-0.58 EP
- 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT
-0.04 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
