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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 53

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.34 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP