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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (20-C.Sutton).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model