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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.30 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model