Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 95

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 95, worth -5.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model