4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 6-M.Ammendola punts 65 yards to CAR 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model