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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 3-J.Charlton punts 18 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP