Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 75

New York Jets 8 – Carolina Panthers 19

(3:20) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 10-B.Berrios to 50 for 25 yards (34-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.13 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP