Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 73

New York Jets 8 – Carolina Panthers 19

(7:12) 6-M.Ammendola punts 42 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 46 for 15 yards (25-T.Johnson; 43-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.25 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model