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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 16 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 9-R.Santoso 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model