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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 6-M.Ammendola punts 57 yards to CAR 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 26 for 12 yards (43-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model