Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 16 – New York Jets 0

(13:31) 3-J.Charlton punts 54 yards to NYJ 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 41 for 15 yards (49-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model