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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 9-R.Santoso 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP