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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 4

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 8, RECOVERED by NYJ-98-S.Rankins at NYJ 9.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model