4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model