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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model