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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn to CIN 49 for 6 yards (21-M.Hilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -0.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model