Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Minnesota Vikings 21

(7:26) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to MIN 32, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds. {Ball tipped at the line by Min 57}

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.02 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model