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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP