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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 24

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model