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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 28-J.Mixon right tackle to CIN 30 for no gain (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model