Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(1:23) 3-J.Berry punts 61 yards to CIN 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 25 for 12 yards (20-H.Hand).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.79 EP
63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model