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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 15

New England Patriots 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model