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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 24

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model