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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model