Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 3

(6:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to NE 38, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 37 for -1 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 86-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model