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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 10 at the 52
Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(9:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.00 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.96 EP
- 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.95 EP
KICK
-2.06 EP
- 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 81% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT
-0.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
