Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(7:19) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to NO 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-81-J.Deguara.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.99 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model