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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:53) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to GB 37 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model