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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model