Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 3

(6:22) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to GB 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-88-T.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP

KICK -1.37 EP

27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
73% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model